The George Boole Foundation
  FLASH      . . . . The 2010-2015 Programme of the Foundation includes the Decision Analysis Initiative (DAI) bringing the benefits of decision analysis to business and society in general . . . . two recent practical outcomes include the launch of an online systems prototyping site for benchmarking agricultural information systems deployed using server side ECMAScript, visit AgroInfoSyS_Europe. Want to learn more about server side ECMAScripting? visit Power-ECMAScripting . . . . please explore the site . . . . or visit The Decision Analysis Initiative . . . .









The George Boole Foundation fosters the dissemination of information on the practical benefits of the work of George Boole on deduction & inference models applied to
business, economics, finance, resource
conservation, governance and process automation.
DAI
2010-2015

The
Logic
of
Economic
Performance

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Introduction

The George Boole Foundation (GBF) has the objective of fostering the beneficial application of deductive logic and inference in effective decision-making for the solution to social, economic and environmental challenges. Our orientation is towards practical demonstrations in all areas of application and the review of state of the art technologies and techniques applied to harness the power of data, information & knowledge in an effective manner.

The GBF is not "IT led" but rather works to facilitate the translation of specific practical issues into workable solutions identified on the basis of decision analysis and systems engineering. This exercise has the objective of improving tasks used to accomplish some objective. The next step is to identify if any task or task components can be facilitated through automation making use of appropriate information technology and telecommunications solutions. At each step in this process it is essential to keep in mind that the process should maximise the effectiveness of activities in producing the desired output in terms of a specified product or service.

To visit the Decision Analysis Initiative,
click on the image below

The economy

The conventional approaches to macroeconomic management were unable to prevent the economic and financial crises of the 1930s, 1970s and post 2007. The conventional macroeconomic "solutions" to depression, commodity price escalation and excessive debt tend to introduce a high degree of differentiation reflected in the form of winners, losers and those who remain in a close-to-neutral policy-impact state. The main inescapable issue is, however, that conventional macroeconomic policies have significant differential impacts across the social and economic constituencies both in "good times" as well as when attempting to move the economy out of "crisis".

There are two main reasons why conventional macroeconomic policies introduce disruptive tendencies:

  • the two main schools of economic thought, Keynesianism and Monetarism do not contain sufficient consideration, and therefore accommodation, for the roles of technology, learning, technique and innovation in securing economic growth and stability;
  • both conventional approaches to macroeconomic analysis and policy-making emphasise an aggregate nominal monetary sum or volume as the determining factor "driving" the economy according to "demand";

The financial crisis

"There is little doubt that the financial crisis emerging during 2007-2009 was a combined and direct result of inadequate attention to appropriate decision analysis in the realms of commercial financial risk assessment at the corporate level. There was also insufficient attention given to the identification of appropriate economic policy options at the national and international levels.

It is clear that there is an urgent need for better decision analysis at the micro and macroeconomics levels
."

Fiscal Autonomy Report - UK, SEEL, 2009

The practical outcome

There is no need to venture far to establish the outcomes of disruptive macroeconomic policies. Between 1945 and 2012 manufacturing in the United Kingdom declined, globalization has encouraged "off-shore engineering" and outsourcing. As the service sector has expanded, the process of outsourcing to "off-shore services" has accelerated. Politicians consider this aspect of globalization to be "inevitable". This has become a reality more because the macroeconomic environment is no fully supportive to innovation and it has become more profitable to financialize transactions to make a profit. Since the 1970s so-called derivative trading has increased significantly so that the main participants in most major markets are not the primary interested parties who produce or use of physical goods but, increasingly, financial intermediaries operating rapid computer-based online transactions as hedging positions. Hedging positions are a fundamental operational norm for minimizing the risks associated with holding derivatives. This has resulted in a fundamental inflation in major commodity markets as well as derivative prices. This "norm" of cross-hedging was established by the Black & Scholes' derivative pricing model which fails when the inflationary margins created by derivative holders move too far from their intrinsic value, as happened in 2007.

The maintenance of this hostile macroeconomic environment based largely on an experimental approach to policy-making and regulation has exacerbated the state of affairs of the social and economic constituencies. There has been a widening gap between the growth in the currency (Pound Sterling) and the purchasing power of that currency because the necessary levels of technical and economic performance have not been achieved to compensate for monetary volume. As a result the Pound Sterling in 2012 is worth some 3% of its value in 1945 (a loss of 97% in just 67 years).

Our response - The Decision Analysis Initiative - 2010-2015

The George Boole Foundation established the Decision Analysis Initiative 2010-2015 (DAI) as an extension service to help provide a solution to the inadequate levels of innovation in
technology arising from advancing technique and learning. This initiative will provide practical demonstrations of beneficial information management techniques for all types of economic activity. The DAI has its own dedicated website that can be accessed by clicking on the button on the right.


The George Boole Foundation & Boolean Society are sponsored by various entities