Worshops 2009-2014     ISEE - Institute of Systems Engineering Economics GBI Home    ISEE Home    Workshops    Workshop prospectus    List of briefs Why was Decision Analysis selected as our second workshop theme for 2009-2014? In 2007-2008 our first workshop initiative covered: Feedstocks, Fibre & Food. This proved to be useful but interest in the activities only peaked as it was coming to an end. The GBI commissioned a report entitled Workshop Review as a follow up to: identify of the relative effectiveness of the methods and formats applied assess related documentation in circulation issued by any source recommend how workshops might be improved in future initiatives As part of a separate expercise ISEE was asked to identify the most important area for activity during 2009-2010, taking into account the findings of the Workshop Review. Workshop Review findings & ISEE's recommendations Amongst the most significant Workshop Review findings can be included: many unsolicited contributions were not structured in a way that all critical determinants of issues under question were identified in general there was insufficient attention paid to basic decision analysis concepts different contributions were sometimes difficult to assess in a comparative sense the ability to combine technical, economic and financial dimensions was in general weak The state of knowledge on decision analysis These issues were not related to the competence of contributors which reflected a high standard of dedication and capability. However, there is a significant constraint arising from there being inadequate attention having been paid, in the past, to the development of appropriate data-information-knowledge sequences to ensure sufficient coherence and relevance to apply sound decision analysis. In general decision analysis models were completely absent and in particular on issues of public concern involving rural communities or whole populations there was no attempt to apply deference decision analysis models. Lastly, the standards of reports issued by government, albeit undertaken by independent writers, did not exhibit a systems apporoach nor any acknowledgement of the need to apply decision analysis to the planning of such reports. It would seem that, in general, these gaps have arisen from deficiencies in education & training, the lack of appropriate standards and a more general lack of awareness of modern developments in decision analysis. Ethics in politics One significant finding is that the terms of reference issued by governments and political parties are often designed to preclude certain decision analysis options resulting in a tedentious output which non-the-less is considered to be an "independent report". This common approach to the use of scientific committees and independent expertise actually prevents the exposure of options which are superior to those which have been pre-determined by political parties on the basis of weak evidence or simple bias. This raises a range of issues concerning professional ethics on the part of scientists and technologists on the one hand and moral obligation of representatives to ensure that existing facts are used to support the general welbeing of the population and not make these subject to other party preferences such as the raising of revenue or avoiding political embarassment. An over-riding issue It therefore became apparent there that is a significant knowledge gap amongst decision-makers as to the most appropriate means for organizing information through methods which contribute to the design of effective decision analysis models. This gap, in practice observed at all levels of decision-making from individuals, private companies to state enterprises and governments, was therefore identified as a major constraint on the achievement of more effective and lower risk decision-making affecting the use of private and public resources. The challenge Having come to this conclusion the GBI Council and the ISEE Board reviewed the relative complexity of the extension effort required to improve matters and concluded that this gap could not be closed on the basis of a one-year initiative. The way forward ISEE proposed that the next initiative should be a single co-ordinated effort on the dissemination of practical information on Decision Analysis to be delivered over a 5 year period between 2009-2014. This proposal was accepted and since July 2009 we have been preparing the organization of this initiative. Hector McNeill Workshops ISEE will continue with the the use of problem-solving workshops which have proved to be successful (see box on right). Workshops will continue to be organized to address a complex systems challenge or relevance to society. Decision Analysis Workshops 2009-2014 Our second workshop series, which will run from November 2009 to November 2014, will address the application of decision analysis to complex systems issues of relevance to business and government. Decision analysis1 evolved from the operations research and logic analysis activities developed during the Second World War. Many of the techniques used today were developed some 70-80 years ago but as business and government activities have become more complex they have found a widening array of applications. Terminological origins The term decision analysis appeared in the 1960s in work by Ronald Howard and collaborators working at the Stanford Research Institute, Menlo Park, California, USA. In 1968 Matheson & Howard noted the evolution of a new discipline "decision analysis" which, in their words, seeks to apply logical, mathematical, and scientific procedures to the decision problems of top management that are characterised by the following: Uniqueness - each is one of a kind, perhaps similar to - but never identical with - previous situations Importance - a significant portion of the organization's resources is in question Uncertainty - many of the key factors that must be taken into acocunt are imperfectly known Long run implications - the enterprise will be forced to live with the results of the situation for many years, perhaps even beyond the lifetimes of the individuals involved Complex preferences - the task of incorporating the decision-maker's preferences about time and risk assumes great importance Decision analysis provides a logical framework for balancing these considerations. It permits mathematical modelling of the decision, computational implementation of the model, and quantitative evaluation of the various courses of action. This combination of considerations enables the production of useful aids to decisions by top management. Decision analysis & operations research Decision analysis provides a framework within which the many operations research techniques can be selected and applied in a appropriate manner according to the context and the domain in question. The techniques include: Simulation Structured calculations Goal seeking & optimization Deduction Enterprise models & strategies The learning curve as well as many other mathematical, statistical and logical methods. What is a decision? Taking into account the fact that decision analysis is applied where a significant portion of the organization's resources is in question a decision cannot be considered to be an intent or an idea but is an irrevocable commitment of resources to implement an action or actions to achieve some objective. Any subsequent change in the decision or attempt to cancel it will result in additional resources having to be spent. The strict relationship between a decision and the use of resources makes management decisions significant in economic and financial terms; decisions are important. The decision analysis model The central methodology in decision analysis is a decision analysis model which is designed to makes apparent the relationships between the critical variables (factors) which determine decision outcomes. The decision analysis model is the means whereby decision options are identified, analysed and evaluated to determine those considered to be desirable and feasible according to critical: technical relationships decision-maker preferences resource constraints exogenous factors The workshops - 2009-2014 The workshops of this 5 year series will cover all aspects of decision analysis theory ansd practice and include online demos resulting from a problem-solving approach. 1  see: "The State-of-the-Art & Future of Decision Analysis" McNeill, H.W., SEEL, 2009. (to be posted week beginning 9th November, 2009)